From the man who has now made five previous bad predictions on the UK Interest Rates, Inflation and the output for the Economy, the Governor of the Bank of England, seems to be ‘at it’ again and all this from a man who doesn’t seem to have a job, since UK Interest Rates have been put ‘on hold’ for the last seven years. As can be seen from the list below, he has been so unreliable to-date, that his comments are now of only comedic value and for a salary paid by the taxpayer of £ 874,000, is this not poor value for money?
His ‘gaffe’ list is as follows:
· In August 2013, he said that Interest Rates would not rise until employment was down to 7% and that was not expected until late 2016. In fact, it fell below 7%, less than a year later.
· In August 2013, Mr. Carney declared that ‘Britain was trapped in the slowest recovery in output on record’ but actually, it was the fastest growing economy in the G7 in that year.
· In July 2015, he predicted that Interest Rates may have to rise during the course of the year but no less than six months later was quoted ‘now is not the right time for an Interest Rate rise’.
· In February 2016, he was asked to predict what would happen to UK Interest Rates and he said ‘absolutely, they will rise more likely than not’, but not less than three weeks later said, ‘we could cut Interest Rates towards zero’.
· In February 2016, he said, ‘household and business confidence was robust despite the threat of Brexit’ and last week he said, ‘that a vote to leave could lead to a technical recession’.
This man has made more ‘about turns’ than Dad’s Army and the government is expecting us to heed his advice.
Clearly the Prime Minister, ‘Call me Dave’, and the Chancellor, George, have ‘felt his collar’ and ‘wielded him out’ with another sound bite about the horrors of Brexit and how ‘flies from a thousand camels’ will descend on the UK citizens if we leave Europe.
Christine Lagarde, of the IMF, has also been ‘got-at’ by the ‘Remain team’. She is the one who had to apologise ignominiously for having poorly assessed the recovery of the UK economy after the credit crunch of 2008. She predicted that the austerity measures put in place, would not work, since this would forsake future growth.
She is now claiming that the Pound will collapse and the UK will go into recession if Brexit takes place. ‘What a load of tosh’!
The truth is – for anyone who would like to know – that after Brexit, yes, the Pound will fall against the Dollar, but will remain in parity with the Euro, which will also fall. This is because in the months after Brexit there will be a hiatus until people realise that there is life afterwards and that the world will not come to an end.
And, just in case the government try to blame worsening economic conditions on the Referendum, let us be in no doubt, that all the tax changes to Non Doms, Stamp Duty and Buy-to-Let investments have, in aggregate, ground the UK property market to a halt, thereby denying the Treasury vital tax receipts.
Manufacturing is presently in recession and the UK economy is shrinking fast, with unemployment rising and this has been the case for the past year. With the Tory Manifesto promises, the u-turns on Tax Credits, Invalidity Benefits, Private Pensions etc., the Chancellor has very little ‘wriggle room’ to raise money and close the deficit, which is why, in the last year, it has remained stubbornly at
£70billion. He was reliant on a growing economy, with rising tax receipts in order to meet his strict budgetary targets for a balanced Budget in 2020. The quotation from Rudyard Kipling, ‘never the twain shall meet’ seems to resonate.
If Brexit is the result after the Referendum, under the rules of the EU, nothing will change for two years during which time, new trade agreements will be put in place. Since we have a trade deficit with Europe, it is more in their interest to ensure we continue to buy their goods, Nike Free , than it is for us to sell goods to them.
With the inflationary factors being so subdued, there will be no appreciable rise in inflation as there is plenty of spare capacity in the system and oil/food prices are extremely low.
It looks like ‘Operation Fear’ is being stoked up by the government, once again, and they are not happy unless this fills the news pages on a daily basis, and no doubt, this will be the case, all the way up to June 23rd.
Sadly, methinks ‘Desperate Dave’ is so worried about this vote, that he will ensnare anyone and everyone to endorse the mantra of the government’s view.
Why was the Referendum not set four weeks after the announcement (as is the case for General Elections) instead of what is at present, a four month ‘festering period’ where we have this unedifying spectacle of the Remain and Brexit camps, taking ‘potshots’ at each other.
Goodness knows what must be being ‘cooked up’ in the bowels of No 10 and No 11 in the next five weeks?
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