If we remain ‘In Europe,’ needless to say, nothing will really change and I predict that the market for property up to £1million will carry on its relentless path with growth of circa 2-4%.  This sector was excited by the government’s Stamp Duty ‘bribes’ before the Election in the Autumn Statement of 2014.  After the watershed of the Stamp Duty increases on Buy-to-Let investments in April 2016, activity in property, in this price bracket, has been subdued with far fewer transactions and a general shortage of stock.

Activity in the middle market and the super-prime sectors will continue to be dampened by the aggregated affect of Stamp Duty ‘hikes’, fiscal changes to Non Doms, ATEDs, oil price drop, the gyrations of world stock markets and the general slow down of the world economies. In this sector, illiquidity is a major problem where the numbers of transactions are down by up to 50% or more in London.  Underlying prices will continue to ease by about 10% per annum as the number of properties available overwhelm the dwindling pool of ‘real’ cash buyers around at any one time. I estimate that from the peak in May 2014 values have dropped by 30% in this sector. Continue reading →