Well, well, well, who would have ‘thunk’ it?  In December 2019, when Boris Johnson came storming in on a white charger, with an 80-seat majority, in statistical terms, it looked as though the Tories should have been in power for not just one, but two electoral terms.

After four and a half years and three Prime Ministers later, having squandered this golden opportunity, the Tories are looking down the barrel of a shotgun which is primed, cocked and ready for ritual slaughter at the hands of Sir Kier Starmer. Not only does he not need to play on the pitch, nor don his football kit, but just has to turn up at the ground, to win the match.

Familiar, distant, memories of Joe Biden being holed up in his Delaware home at the last US presidential election in 2020, spring to mind.  He didn’t even need to trumpet his wares by active electioneering, since he left his opponent, Mr. Trump, to do the losing for him.

Less Titanic, more the Mary Celeste

Our well-intentioned Prime Minister is going to take an electoral beating in a few weeks’ time, but this is the price you pay for having so persistently and mercilessly abused the electorate for fourteen years.  He may be a decent man but non the less, a provincial bank manager who has maneuvered himself to the top job, which is way beyond his station. Less Jamie Dimon, the swash buckling deal guru of JP Morgan and more Captain Mainwaring of Dad’s Army fame, I would argue.  He surrounds himself with ‘wet behind the ears’ sycophants who constantly tell him ‘What a good job he is doing’.

The unedifying spectacle of him getting drenched in front of Number Ten was bad enough, but his conspicuous absence from the D-Day ceremonies was beyond the pale and has evidently disenfranchised the ‘grey vote’ which is just the demographic sector he was trying to court, for much needed votes.

As for the renegades who used inside information about the July 4^th Election, to make a few grubby coppers in the betting office, well, it beggars’ belief.  Clearly, there is no control anymore in the wheelhouse, which is not even the Titanic, more the Mary Celeste. 

Medicine worse than the ailment

Now let’s look at the offerings of our Labour government in waiting. Whilst they have bound themselves to the mast on Income Tax, VAT, National Insurance Contributions and Council Tax, they have been fiendishly circumspect about Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, private pensions and have been similarly obscure about a possible Mansion Tax.

Although they have tried to make their manifesto as judiciously ‘plain vanilla’ as any socialist led government can tolerate, nevertheless, the invasive tentacles of left-wing activists interfering in markets and trying to exacerbate a class war, has not gone away.

Angela Rayner is the Deputy Prime Minister for a reason and whilst she may be the new age ‘John Prescott’, she will no doubt be ‘thumping her clunking fists’ at the Cabinet table, urged on by all the left-wing unions and other zealots in the party.

By the first Budget, in November 2024, they will inevitably raise Capital Gains Tax, in parity with Income Tax levels, and immediately drop the higher tax allowance for private pensions, just before they crank the thumb screw on Inheritance Tax and possibly Mansion Tax.

One can’t ignore the theatrical whispers by giving more power to tenants in the rental sector which will scare off private landlords, even more so than at present, and low and behold, the supply of rental properties will shrink, and prices will rise exponentially, further disenfranshing the vulnerable.

The Labour Party’s instinctive and insatiable desire to interfere in markets usually means that the ‘medicine is far worse than the ailment’.

Property paradox

Housing was conspicuous by its absence in the Labour leaders six pledges. Although both Party’s have promised more new homes, paradoxically, I think that the Labour Party will do more than their predecessors to reform Nimbyism in the planning system, which should release a greater number of new homes on the market, which hopefully will stabilise prices.

Despite their rhetoric, the Tories have failed to build appreciably more than 150,000 homes per annum and frankly, although reviving Help-to-Buy and eliminating Stamp Duty for first time buyers may be a good thing, it will non the less stimulate demand, which will drive up prices if the supply of new homes doesn’t increase commensurably.

Whilst the supply of properties in the higher range brackets has been reasonably constrained, the number of cash buyers around has been steadily reducing and all the more so in view of the non-Dom changes that have been put in place by the Tories, as a feeble attempt to ‘steal the Labour Party’s clothes’.

If the supply of properties increases, then I would imagine values must drop in a market which is already very price sensitive.

Although there have been some notable asking price reductions in prime central London, frankly this is an adjustment to marketing froth, since the underlying values have so far, remained reasonably resilient.  However, this may change if the trend continues.

There are fewer uber tenant enquiries but very few properties for them to rent and therefore values are fairly stable. Today, we are presiding over two significant deals.  One of £30,000 and the other, £20,000 per week.

Having said this, in the micro markets in north west London there have been some interesting sales which have exceeded our expectations and in one particular case, after two rounds of a bidding war, a notable property is about to be sold for 10% more than value.

As the Election result is pretty well ‘baked in’ to people’s expectations, there isn’t a stampede of buyers or sellers looking for the exit doors and for the moment few exchanges of contracts are being delayed until after the General Election date of July 4^th, which would normally be the case where a change of political direction is about to take place.

VAT quandary

Already middle-class parents are in a quandary about VAT on school fees, come September 2024.  The wealthy will have no problem paying the higher rates, but it is the conspicuously un-wealthy that will be hit by this scourge. The State schools have no capacity for the tsunami of displaced, former, private school entrants and the wealth of the nation will inevitably suffer for this foolish class warrior act, that is ‘red meat to their supporters’.

Let’s hope and pray that Mr. Starmer, who is being covertly mentored by Tony Blair, continues to aspire to the left of center of the political spectrum where, let’s face it, sustainable power is always assured.

The UK, as a whole, does not respond well to extremes of political views and this is why the Reform Party, who may be momentarily in the ascendancy, fueled by Mr. Farage and his rhetoric will, in the end, precipitate very few MPs at the General Election and in the aftermath, will be a ‘busted flush’.

Just my views from a pensive estate agent with 50 years in the saddle.
Trevor Abrahmsohn, Glentree International

At Glentree we have traversed the Residential Property Market from the dark days of 1976 to the present.

We have presided over the transformation of London from a souvenir city, rich in culture and heritage (as Paris is today), into a financial colossus and Brexit and the Non-Dom fiscal changes will not serve to diminish this trend. Continue reading →

What on earth is our esteemed, well intentioned, perfectly decent, Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, up to now…, bless him?  Everyone knows that he was always a better ‘No 2 man’ and was elevated, by circumstance, to the top job, perhaps beyond his station and in a General Electoral context was always destined to generate galloping indifference from the Electorate.   Why on earth did he not take the good advice from his electioneering guru, Isaac Levido and wait for an autumn Election?

It does appear that instead the PM surrounds himself with a cabal of ‘wet behind the ears’ border line Millennials, who have convinced him to ‘go for broke’ on July 4^th and in doing so, attempt to ambush the Labour Party with this surprise attack!

Goliath likely to murder David

Sorry to disappoint you Prime Minister, but this will never be a ‘D-Day moment’ for you, i.e., catching the ‘Jerry’s napping’, since I have to tell you that the Labour Party are well funded now and certainly up for the fight.

Unfortunately, by the looks of the persistent poll deficit, Goliath this time, is going to murder David.

Common sense dictates they should have waited for the following good news to materialise over the next four to five months, in the expectant hope that the poll deficit closes.

• At present the average working person is enjoying the highest ‘real growth’ in wages for the last 15-20 years
• UK growth may well increase over the next two quarters, giving us a lead amongst the G7 countries
• Inflation is at last moving towards the 2% optimal target figure
• The IMF are predicting three drops in interest rates over the summer which would be good news for mortgages and the property market
• Who knows, the constipated Rwandan project may well get traction at last, sending a message down the line (as in Ireland) that a life-threatening treacherous boat trip across the Chanel from France will not end up in Utopian UK, but instead perhaps a makeshift Rwandan motel
• There was time for one more Budget in the autumn, which could have included some pupil dilating ‘true conservative’ tax give aways i.e., National Insurance, Inheritance Tax etc.

What planet is the government on?

I’m not sure what planet the government is on these days, but even a nudnik can work out that this is all good news and may well soften the resistance of former Tory voters to come back to the fold.

There is a good proportion of undecided voters who are waiting for the manifestos to be disclosed and let’s be real here, Sir Keir Starmer is no electoral ‘rock star’ and his blatant lack of efficacious policies will be all too clear as the Election campaign grinds on.

It is nauseating to hear the Labour Party’s repetitive class warfare soundbites with regard to non-doms and VAT on schools, supposedly in a vain attempt to help to fund the recruitment of doctors and nurses.

All this is fatuous balderdash since these mindless initiatives may not raise any money whatsoever for the Exchequer, but inevitably will start a stampede for the exit door amongst international investors and create huge uncertainty amongst middle class parents whilst deciding the future of their children’s education.

One would have thought that these issues are so important, as a part of the national treasure and if imposed, would represent a triumph of petty politics over pragmatism.

If conscription of young people into community projects or the armed forces is Mr. Sunak’s idea of a flagship policy, I’m afraid we’re ‘all at sea’.  I questioned the wisdom of the anti-smoking ban at the last Tory conference which had no traction and was soporific at best.

Where are the post Brexit freedoms?

As far as the government is concerned, where are the new-found freedoms promised from the post Brexit era, such as lower Corporation Tax, VAT reclaim and industrial scale deregulation, that this country so thirsts for?

I’m sorry to dash the hopes of aspiring businesspeople, who may remember the ‘splash the cash’ antics of the old Tony Blair Labour Party. With government budget deficit now at an eyewatering £120billion, the new regime under Chancellor in waiting, Rachel Reeves, will be hamstrung by their own rhetoric as all government spending will have to be costed and therefore there will be no wriggle room, unless they increase taxes.

I think, The Residential Property Market will trundle along in the expectant hope that mortgage rates will shortly come down further, although the private landlords, who are becoming an extinct breed today, are increasingly worried about the fear of rent caps and the threat of new powers for the tenants, which could render the rental investment world a more onerous place than even at present.

I am pleased to comment that in the lower to middle brackets of the property markets business seems to be continuing unabated. However, it is the higher end that I am concerned about with far fewer enquiries in this sector.

Bring back Boris!

Although Boris Johnson was no saint and was the architect of his own misfortune, I fear that the Tories will rue the day that they ignominiously banished him from power. Despite the unforgivable ‘party gate’ shenanigans, the poll deficit for the Party was only 6% then, which was a perfectly manageable gap but now, after the antics of Truss and Sunak, it is a consistent 20%+ which, in all likelihood, is a bridge too far.

I’m trying to get a lather up to vote on July 4^th, but at the moment, for me and perhaps others, the choice is similar to that of two types of root canal treatment, and which one would I prefer?

Answers on a postcard!